Why Losses Loom Larger Than Gains
Nega yo‘qotish yutuqdan kattaroq tuyuladi
Sarlavha va pastdagi so‘zlarga qarang. Matn nima haqida bo‘lishi mumkin? Bir daqiqa o‘ylab ko‘ring — bu miyani o‘qishga tayyorlaydi.
Xulq-atvor iqtisodiyotidagi “yo‘qotishdan qochish” tamoyili va uning kundalik hayotdagi ta’siri.
Kalit so‘zlar
Bu so‘zlar matnda uchraydi va matnda ajratib ko‘rsatiladi. Bosing — talaffuzini eshitasiz.
⏱ O‘qish boshlanganda vaqt o‘lchanadi — oxirida tezligingizni ko‘rasiz.
👆 Istalgan so‘zni bosing — tarjimasi yoki lug‘atga havola chiqadi.
Imagine you are offered a bet on the toss of a coin. If it lands on heads, you win a hundred and fifty dollars; if it lands on tails, you lose a hundred. In purely mathematical terms, this is an attractive offer: on average, you would expect to gain twenty-five dollars each time you played. Yet most people, when presented with this choice, decline it. For many, the prospect of losing a hundred dollars simply outweighs the prospect of winning half as much again.
Tasavvur qiling, sizga tanga tashlashga garov taklif qilinmoqda. Agar u gerb tomoni bilan tushsa, siz bir yuz ellik dollar yutasiz; agar raqam tomoni bilan tushsa, yuz dollar yutqazasiz. Sof matematik nuqtai nazardan, bu jozibali taklif: o‘rtacha hisobda har o‘ynaganingizda yigirma besh dollar yutishni kutish mumkin. Biroq ko‘pchilik odamlar bu tanlovga duch kelganda rad etadi. Ko‘pchilik uchun yuz dollar yo‘qotish ehtimoli shunchaki undan yarim baravar ko‘p yutish ehtimolidan ustun keladi.
This tendency, known as loss aversion, was identified by the psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky as part of their “prospect theory”, published in 1979, which challenged the assumption, central to traditional economics, that people make decisions as rational calculators. Their experiments suggested that, psychologically, losses weigh roughly twice as heavily as equivalent gains. Losing a sum of money causes more pain than winning the same sum brings pleasure. In 2002, Kahneman was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics for this work; Tversky, who had died in 1996, could not share it.
Yo‘qotishdan qochish deb nomlanuvchi bu moyillikni psixologlar Daniel Kaneman va Amos Tverski 1979-yilda e’lon qilingan “istiqbol nazariyasi”ning bir qismi sifatida aniqlashgan, bu nazariya an’anaviy iqtisodiyotning markaziy taxmini — odamlar oqilona hisoblovchilar sifatida qaror qabul qiladi degan fikrga e’tiroz bildirgan. Ularning tajribalari psixologik jihatdan yo‘qotishlar teng yutuqlardan taxminan ikki baravar og‘irroq tortishini ko‘rsatgan. Pul miqdorini yo‘qotish xuddi shu miqdorni yutish zavq bag‘ishlaganidan ko‘ra ko‘proq og‘riq keltiradi. 2002-yilda Kaneman bu ishi uchun iqtisodiyot bo‘yicha Nobel mukofotiga sazovor bo‘ldi; 1996-yilda vafot etgan Tverski uni baham ko‘ra olmadi.
Loss aversion helps to explain a related phenomenon called the endowment effect. In a well-known experiment, half the students in a class were given coffee mugs and the other half were not. Those with mugs were asked how much they would sell them for; those without were asked how much they would pay. The sellers typically demanded about twice as much as the buyers were willing to offer. Simply owning the mug, for a few minutes, made it seem more valuable, because giving it up felt like a loss.
Yo‘qotishdan qochish egalik effekti deb ataladigan bog‘liq hodisani tushuntirishga yordam beradi. Mashhur tajribada sinfdagi talabalarning yarmiga qahva krujkalari berilgan, qolgan yarmiga berilmagan. Krujkasi borlardan ularni qanchaga sotishlari so‘ralgan; krujkasi yo‘qlardan qancha to‘lashlari so‘ralgan. Sotuvchilar odatda xaridorlar taklif qilishga tayyor bo‘lganidan taxminan ikki baravar ko‘p talab qilishgan. Krujkaga bir necha daqiqa egalik qilishning o‘zi uni qimmatliroq ko‘rsatgan, chunki undan voz kechish yo‘qotishdek tuyulgan.
The effects of loss aversion can be seen in many areas of everyday life. Investors often hold on to shares that have fallen in value for too long, hoping to avoid “realising” a loss, while selling successful shares too early to lock in a gain. Homeowners in a falling market frequently refuse to sell below the price they originally paid, even when this means their property remains unsold for months. Marketers exploit the bias too: free trials work partly because cancelling a service we already “have” feels like giving something up, and messages framed in terms of avoiding losses (“Don’t miss out!”) tend to be more persuasive than those that promise equivalent gains.
Yo‘qotishdan qochishning ta’sirini kundalik hayotning ko‘plab sohalarida ko‘rish mumkin. Investorlar ko‘pincha qiymati tushib ketgan aksiyalarni yo‘qotishni “amalga oshirmaslik” umidida juda uzoq ushlab turishadi, muvaffaqiyatli aksiyalarni esa yutuqni mustahkamlash uchun juda erta sotishadi. Pasayayotgan bozorda uy egalari ko‘pincha dastlab to‘lagan narxdan pastroqqa sotishni rad etishadi, hatto bu mulki oylab sotilmay qolishini anglatsa ham. Marketologlar ham bu moyillikdan foydalanadi: bepul sinov muddatlari qisman shuning uchun ishlaydiki, bizda allaqachon “bor” xizmatni bekor qilish nimadandir voz kechishdek tuyuladi va yo‘qotishdan qochish nuqtai nazaridan tuzilgan xabarlar (“Qo‘ldan boy bermang!”) teng yutuqni va’da qiladiganlardan ko‘ra ishonarliroq bo‘ladi.
Policymakers have begun to take account of the principle. In one experiment in the United States, teachers who were given a bonus at the start of the year and told they would have to return it if their students’ results did not improve achieved larger gains than teachers who were promised the same bonus at the end of the year. The threat of losing money already received proved more motivating than the hope of earning it.
Siyosatchilar bu tamoyilni hisobga ola boshlashdi. AQShdagi bir tajribada yil boshida mukofot puli berilgan va o‘quvchilarining natijalari yaxshilanmasa uni qaytarishlari kerakligi aytilgan o‘qituvchilar xuddi shu mukofot yil oxirida va’da qilingan o‘qituvchilarga qaraganda kattaroq natijalarga erishgan. Allaqachon olingan pulni yo‘qotish xavfi uni topish umididan ko‘ra ko‘proq rag‘batlantiruvchi bo‘lib chiqdi.
In recent years, some researchers have argued that loss aversion has been overstated. They note that for small sums, people often show little or no aversion to losses, and that the effect depends heavily on context, such as whether a person expects to experience a loss or merely imagines one. The debate continues, but few dispute that people frequently treat losses and gains asymmetrically.
So‘nggi yillarda ba’zi tadqiqotchilar yo‘qotishdan qochish bo‘rttirib yuborilgan deb ta’kidlashdi. Ularning qayd etishicha, kichik summalar uchun odamlar ko‘pincha yo‘qotishdan deyarli qochmaydi yoki umuman qochmaydi va effekt kontekstga, masalan, odam yo‘qotishni boshidan kechirishni kutayotganmi yoki shunchaki tasavvur qilayaptimi, kuchli bog‘liq. Bahs davom etmoqda, lekin odamlar ko‘pincha yo‘qotish va yutuqlarga nosimmetrik munosabatda bo‘lishiga kam odam e’tiroz bildiradi.
Understanding this bias will not eliminate it, but it can help us notice when fear of loss, rather than careful reasoning, is driving our decisions. Asking “Would I choose this if I did not already have it?” is a simple but surprisingly effective way to check.
Bu moyillikni tushunish uni yo‘q qilmaydi, lekin u qarorlarimizni puxta mulohaza emas, balki yo‘qotish qo‘rquvi boshqarayotganini payqashga yordam beradi. “Agar bu menda allaqachon bo‘lmaganida, uni tanlarmidim?” deb so‘rash — tekshirishning oddiy, lekin ajablanarli darajada samarali usuli.
Tushundingizmi?
Javob topa olmasangiz, «O‘qish» bosqichiga qaytib, matnga qarang — bu ham mashq.
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Asosiy g‘oya
1 What is the main topic of the article?
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2 Why do most people refuse the coin bet described in the first paragraph?
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3 What did the coffee mug experiment show?
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4 Why are free trials effective, according to the article?
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5 What did the teacher experiment show?
True / False / Not Given
True — matnda aynan shunday deyilgan. False — matn aksini aytadi. Not Given — matnda bu haqda ma’lumot yo‘q.
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1 Tversky died before Kahneman received the Nobel Prize.
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2 In the mug experiment, buyers offered more than sellers demanded.
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3 Messages about avoiding losses are often more persuasive.
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4 Losses feel roughly twice as strong as equal gains.
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5 All researchers agree that loss aversion is equally strong for small sums.
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6 Investors may keep falling shares too long.
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7 The coffee mug experiment took place in Israel.
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8 Most homeowners eventually sell at a loss.
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9 In the coin bet, a player would on average gain money.
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10 Kahneman and Tversky supported the idea that people are rational calculators.
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11 The teacher experiment was repeated in other countries.
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12 The writer suggests asking whether you would choose something if you did not already have it.
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Chapdan so‘zni, o‘ngdan uning ma’nosini tanlang. Hammasi juftlansa, natija chiqadi.