Pulling Carbon from the Air
Havodan uglerodni tortib olish
Sarlavha va pastdagi so‘zlarga qarang. Matn nima haqida bo‘lishi mumkin? Bir daqiqa o‘ylab ko‘ring — bu miyani o‘qishga tayyorlaydi.
Karbonat angidridni ushlab qolish texnologiyalari: umidlar, cheklovlar va xavflar.
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For decades, discussions of climate change focused almost entirely on reducing the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere. Increasingly, however, scientists have concluded that cutting emissions alone may no longer be enough. To limit global warming to the levels agreed in Paris, most scenarios produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change now require not only rapid reductions but also the active removal of billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere every year by the middle of the century.
O‘nlab yillar davomida iqlim o‘zgarishi haqidagi muhokamalar deyarli butunlay atmosferaga chiqariladigan karbonat angidrid miqdorini kamaytirishga qaratilgan edi. Biroq olimlar tobora chiqindilarni kamaytirishning o‘zi endi yetarli bo‘lmasligi mumkin degan xulosaga kelmoqda. Global isishni Parijda kelishilgan darajalarda cheklash uchun Iqlim o‘zgarishi bo‘yicha hukumatlararo hay’at tuzgan ssenariylarning aksariyati endi nafaqat tez qisqartirishni, balki asr o‘rtasiga kelib har yili milliardlab tonna karbonat angidridni atmosferadan faol olib tashlashni ham talab qiladi.
Some methods of carbon removal are ancient and natural. Forests, soils, wetlands and the ocean already absorb roughly half of the carbon dioxide that humans emit each year. Planting trees, restoring peat bogs and changing agricultural practices to store more carbon in soil can all increase this natural uptake. These approaches are relatively cheap and bring additional benefits for biodiversity and water. Their weakness is permanence: a forest that stores carbon today can release it tomorrow through fire, drought, disease or logging, and the area of land available is limited.
Uglerodni olib tashlashning ba’zi usullari qadimiy va tabiiy. O‘rmonlar, tuproqlar, botqoqliklar va okean odamlar har yili chiqaradigan karbonat angidridning taxminan yarmini allaqachon yutadi. Daraxt ekish, torf botqoqliklarini tiklash va tuproqda ko‘proq uglerod saqlash uchun qishloq xo‘jaligi amaliyotlarini o‘zgartirish bu tabiiy yutilishni oshirishi mumkin. Bu yondashuvlar nisbatan arzon va biologik xilma-xillik hamda suv uchun qo‘shimcha foyda keltiradi. Ularning zaif tomoni — barqarorlik: bugun uglerod saqlayotgan o‘rmon ertaga yong‘in, qurg‘oqchilik, kasallik yoki daraxt kesish orqali uni chiqarib yuborishi mumkin va mavjud yer maydoni cheklangan.
Technological approaches promise greater permanence. The most widely discussed is direct air capture, in which large fans draw air through filters containing chemicals that bind to carbon dioxide. The captured gas can then be compressed and pumped deep underground, where in suitable rock formations it can be stored for thousands of years. In Iceland, one project injects carbon dioxide into volcanic basalt, where it reacts with the rock and turns into solid minerals within about two years.
Texnologik yondashuvlar kattaroq barqarorlikni va’da qiladi. Eng ko‘p muhokama qilinadigani — havodan bevosita ushlab qolish, bunda katta ventilyatorlar havoni karbonat angidrid bilan bog‘lanadigan kimyoviy moddalarni o‘z ichiga olgan filtrlar orqali o‘tkazadi. Ushlangan gazni keyin siqib, yer ostiga chuqur haydash mumkin, u yerda mos tog‘ jinslari qatlamlarida u ming yillab saqlanishi mumkin. Islandiyadagi bir loyiha karbonat angidridni vulqon bazaltiga haydaydi, u yerda u jins bilan reaksiyaga kirishib, taxminan ikki yil ichida qattiq minerallarga aylanadi.
The difficulty is scale and cost. Carbon dioxide makes up only about 0.04 percent of the air, so enormous volumes must be processed to capture meaningful quantities, which requires large amounts of energy. The first commercial direct air capture plant in Iceland, opened in 2021, was designed to capture around four thousand tonnes a year, roughly equivalent to the annual emissions of a few hundred cars. Global emissions from fossil fuels, by comparison, amount to more than thirty-five billion tonnes a year. Costs, currently several hundred dollars per tonne, would need to fall dramatically for the technology to operate at the necessary scale.
Qiyinchilik ko‘lam va narxda. Karbonat angidrid havoning atigi taxminan 0,04 foizini tashkil qiladi, shuning uchun sezilarli miqdorni ushlab qolish uchun ulkan hajmlarni qayta ishlash kerak, bu esa katta miqdorda energiya talab qiladi. 2021-yilda ochilgan Islandiyadagi birinchi tijoriy havodan bevosita ushlab qolish zavodi yiliga taxminan to‘rt ming tonna ushlab qolishga mo‘ljallangan edi, bu taxminan bir necha yuz avtomobilning yillik chiqindilariga teng. Taqqoslash uchun, qazilma yoqilg‘ilardan chiqadigan global chiqindilar yiliga o‘ttiz besh milliard tonnadan oshadi. Hozirda bir tonnasi uchun bir necha yuz dollar bo‘lgan narx texnologiya kerakli ko‘lamda ishlashi uchun keskin tushishi kerak bo‘ladi.
Critics raise a more fundamental concern, sometimes described as “moral hazard”. The promise of future carbon removal, they argue, may be used by governments and fossil fuel companies to justify delaying emission cuts today, on the assumption that the carbon can simply be cleaned up later. There is some evidence for this worry: a significant proportion of the carbon dioxide captured at industrial facilities to date has been used to push more oil out of ageing oil fields, a practice that can result in more emissions overall rather than fewer.
Tanqidchilar ba’zan “axloqiy xavf” deb ta’riflanadigan yanada tubdan xavotirni ko‘tarishadi. Ularning ta’kidlashicha, kelajakda uglerodni olib tashlash va’dasidan hukumatlar va qazilma yoqilg‘i kompaniyalari uglerodni keyinroq shunchaki tozalash mumkin degan taxmin bilan bugungi chiqindilarni qisqartirishni kechiktirishni oqlash uchun foydalanishi mumkin. Bu xavotir uchun ba’zi dalillar bor: sanoat ob’ektlarida hozirgacha ushlab qolingan karbonat angidridning katta qismi eskirgan neft konlaridan ko‘proq neft siqib chiqarish uchun ishlatilgan, bu amaliyot umuman olganda kamroq emas, balki ko‘proq chiqindilarga olib kelishi mumkin.
Most climate scientists therefore take a cautious middle position. Carbon removal will almost certainly be necessary, particularly to deal with emissions from sectors that are very difficult to decarbonise, such as aviation, cement production and some forms of agriculture. But it should be treated as a complement to rapid emission reductions, not a substitute for them. As one researcher has put it, when your bath is overflowing, the first thing to do is turn off the tap, not to buy a bigger mop.
Shuning uchun ko‘pchilik iqlimshunoslar ehtiyotkor o‘rta pozitsiyani egallaydi. Uglerodni olib tashlash deyarli aniq zarur bo‘ladi, ayniqsa aviatsiya, sement ishlab chiqarish va qishloq xo‘jaligining ba’zi turlari kabi uglerodsizlantirish juda qiyin bo‘lgan sohalardan chiqadigan chiqindilarni hal qilish uchun. Lekin u chiqindilarni tez qisqartirishning o‘rnini bosuvchi emas, balki to‘ldiruvchisi sifatida qaralishi kerak. Bir tadqiqotchi aytganidek, vannangiz to‘lib toshayotganda birinchi qiladigan ish — kattaroq latta sotib olish emas, jo‘mrakni yopishdir.
Tushundingizmi?
Javob topa olmasangiz, «O‘qish» bosqichiga qaytib, matnga qarang — bu ham mashq.
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Asosiy g‘oya
1 What is the writer’s main point?
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2 What is the main weakness of natural carbon removal methods?
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3 What happens to carbon dioxide injected into basalt in Iceland?
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4 Why is direct air capture difficult to scale up?
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5 What is meant by “moral hazard” in the article?
True / False / Not Given
True — matnda aynan shunday deyilgan. False — matn aksini aytadi. Not Given — matnda bu haqda ma’lumot yo‘q.
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1 Global fossil fuel emissions exceed thirty-five billion tonnes a year.
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2 Some captured CO2 has been used to extract more oil.
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3 Natural systems absorb about half of human CO2 emissions.
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4 The writer says natural methods bring no additional benefits.
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5 Most climate scientists oppose all forms of carbon removal.
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6 The researcher quoted about the bath works in Iceland.
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7 Captured CO2 can be stored underground for thousands of years.
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8 Iceland plans to become the world’s largest exporter of captured carbon.
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9 The Iceland plant captures more CO2 than all the cars in Europe emit.
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10 Aviation is mentioned as a sector that is hard to decarbonise.
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11 Most IPCC scenarios now include large-scale carbon removal.
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12 The cost of direct air capture has fallen every year since 2021.
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