Confidently Wrong: The Dunning-Kruger Effect
Ishonch bilan xato: Danning-Kruger effekti
Sarlavha va pastdagi so‘zlarga qarang. Matn nima haqida bo‘lishi mumkin? Bir daqiqa o‘ylab ko‘ring — bu miyani o‘qishga tayyorlaydi.
Nega bilimi kam odamlar o‘zini ko‘pincha ortiqcha baholashi va bu effekt atrofidagi bahslar.
Kalit so‘zlar
Bu so‘zlar matnda uchraydi va matnda ajratib ko‘rsatiladi. Bosing — talaffuzini eshitasiz.
⏱ O‘qish boshlanganda vaqt o‘lchanadi — oxirida tezligingizni ko‘rasiz.
👆 Istalgan so‘zni bosing — tarjimasi yoki lug‘atga havola chiqadi.
In 1999, two psychologists at Cornell University, David Dunning and Justin Kruger, published a paper with a memorable title: “Unskilled and Unaware of It”. They had asked students to complete tests of logical reasoning, English grammar and humour, and then to estimate how well they had performed compared with their peers. The results were striking. Those who scored in the bottom quarter had, on average, performed better than only around twelve percent of participants, yet they estimated that they had outperformed more than sixty percent.
1999-yilda Kornell universitetining ikki psixologi Devid Danning va Jastin Kruger esda qolarli nomli maqola nashr etishdi: “Malakasiz va bundan bexabar”. Ular talabalardan mantiqiy fikrlash, ingliz tili grammatikasi va hazil tuyg‘usi bo‘yicha testlarni bajarishni, keyin tengdoshlariga nisbatan qanchalik yaxshi natija ko‘rsatganini baholashni so‘rashgan. Natijalar hayratlanarli edi. Eng past chorakda ball olganlar o‘rtacha hisobda ishtirokchilarning atigi o‘n ikki foizidan yaxshiroq natija ko‘rsatgan, biroq ular oltmish foizdan ko‘prog‘idan o‘zib ketgan deb hisoblashgan.
Dunning and Kruger proposed an explanation that has since become famous far beyond psychology. The skills needed to perform a task well, they argued, are often the same skills needed to recognise a good performance. A person who does not understand the rules of grammar is poorly placed to notice their own grammatical errors. Incompetence, in other words, carries a double burden: it leads people to make mistakes and simultaneously deprives them of the ability to realise it.
Danning va Kruger o‘shandan beri psixologiyadan ancha tashqarida mashhur bo‘lib ketgan tushuntirishni taklif qilishdi. Ularning ta’kidlashicha, vazifani yaxshi bajarish uchun zarur bo‘lgan ko‘nikmalar ko‘pincha yaxshi bajarilgan ishni taniy olish uchun zarur bo‘lgan ko‘nikmalarning o‘zidir. Grammatika qoidalarini tushunmaydigan odam o‘zining grammatik xatolarini payqash uchun yomon holatda. Boshqacha aytganda, layoqatsizlik ikki tomonlama yuk ko‘taradi: u odamlarni xato qilishga olib keladi va bir vaqtning o‘zida ularni buni anglash qobiliyatidan mahrum qiladi.
The study also revealed a less frequently discussed pattern at the other end of the scale. The highest performers tended to underestimate their relative standing. They assessed their own abilities fairly accurately, but they wrongly assumed that tasks they found easy were equally easy for others. Experts, it seems, can suffer from a “curse of knowledge” that makes them overestimate how much other people understand.
Tadqiqot shkalaning boshqa uchida kamroq muhokama qilinadigan qonuniyatni ham ochib berdi. Eng yuqori natija ko‘rsatganlar o‘zlarining nisbiy o‘rnini kamroq baholashga moyil edi. Ular o‘z qobiliyatlarini ancha aniq baholashgan, lekin o‘zlariga oson tuyulgan vazifalar boshqalar uchun ham xuddi shunday oson deb noto‘g‘ri taxmin qilishgan. Ko‘rinishidan, mutaxassislar boshqa odamlar qanchalik ko‘p tushunishini ortiqcha baholashga olib keladigan “bilim la’nati”dan aziyat chekishi mumkin.
The “Dunning-Kruger effect” has become a fixture of popular culture, frequently illustrated online by a dramatic curve in which confidence rises steeply with a little knowledge, crashes into a “valley of despair” and then gradually recovers as true expertise develops. It is worth noting, however, that this famous graph does not appear in the original research, and it misrepresents the findings considerably. In the actual data, the least skilled participants did not believe themselves to be more competent than experts; they simply overestimated their position, while still rating themselves lower than the most skilled participants did.
“Danning-Kruger effekti” ommaviy madaniyatning doimiy qismiga aylandi va internetda ko‘pincha ozgina bilim bilan ishonch keskin ko‘tarilib, “umidsizlik vodiysi”ga qulab tushadigan, keyin esa haqiqiy mahorat rivojlangan sari asta-sekin tiklanadigan dramatik egri chiziq bilan tasvirlanadi. Biroq shuni ta’kidlash kerakki, bu mashhur grafik asl tadqiqotda yo‘q va u natijalarni sezilarli darajada noto‘g‘ri aks ettiradi. Haqiqiy ma’lumotlarda eng kam malakali ishtirokchilar o‘zlarini mutaxassislardan layoqatliroq deb hisoblamagan; ular shunchaki o‘z o‘rnini ortiqcha baholagan, lekin baribir o‘zlarini eng malakali ishtirokchilardan pastroq baholagan.
More fundamentally, some researchers have questioned whether the effect is as psychologically meaningful as it appears. They point out that a similar pattern can arise from purely statistical causes. Most people believe they are somewhat better than average at most things, and any measurement contains random error. When these two factors are combined, the people who happen to score lowest will inevitably appear to overestimate themselves most, and those who score highest will appear to underestimate themselves, even if nobody’s self-knowledge differs at all. Studies using more rigorous methods have found that a genuine effect probably exists, but that it is smaller than the original paper suggested.
Yanada tubdan olganda, ba’zi tadqiqotchilar bu effekt ko‘rinishicha psixologik jihatdan mazmunli ekaniga shubha bildirishgan. Ular shunga o‘xshash qonuniyat sof statistik sabablardan kelib chiqishi mumkinligini ta’kidlashadi. Ko‘pchilik odamlar o‘zini ko‘p narsada o‘rtachadan biroz yaxshiroq deb hisoblaydi va har qanday o‘lchovda tasodifiy xato bo‘ladi. Bu ikki omil birlashganda, tasodifan eng past ball olgan odamlar muqarrar ravishda o‘zini eng ko‘p ortiqcha baholagandek, eng yuqori ball olganlar esa o‘zini kam baholagandek ko‘rinadi, hatto hech kimning o‘zini bilishi umuman farq qilmasa ham. Qat’iyroq usullardan foydalangan tadqiqotlar haqiqiy effekt ehtimol mavjudligini, lekin u asl maqolada taxmin qilinganidan kichikroq ekanini aniqlagan.
There is an irony here worth savouring. The Dunning-Kruger effect is frequently invoked online by people eager to point out the ignorance of others, often with a confidence that the research itself does not justify. The lesson that Dunning himself has emphasised is not that some people are foolish, but that all of us have blind spots, areas in which we lack the knowledge to recognise our own lack of knowledge.
Bu yerda zavqlanishga arziydigan kinoya bor. Danning-Kruger effektini internetda ko‘pincha boshqalarning johilligini ko‘rsatishga ishtiyoqmand odamlar, tez-tez tadqiqotning o‘zi oqlamaydigan ishonch bilan tilga oladi. Danningning o‘zi urg‘u bergan saboq ba’zi odamlar ahmoq ekanida emas, balki barchamizda ko‘r nuqtalar, ya’ni o‘z bilimimiz yetishmasligini tanish uchun bilim yetishmaydigan sohalar borligidadir.
The practical remedy is not to stop trusting ourselves entirely but to seek feedback, particularly from people with relevant expertise, and to treat strong confidence in an unfamiliar area as a signal to slow down rather than to speed up.
Amaliy chora o‘zimizga butunlay ishonmay qo‘yish emas, balki ayniqsa tegishli tajribaga ega odamlardan fikr-mulohaza so‘rash va notanish sohadagi kuchli ishonchni tezlashish emas, balki sekinlashish uchun signal deb qabul qilishdir.
Tushundingizmi?
Javob topa olmasangiz, «O‘qish» bosqichiga qaytib, matnga qarang — bu ham mashq.
-
Asosiy g‘oya
1 What is the main point of the article?
-
2 How did the lowest-scoring participants estimate their performance?
-
3 What is the “curse of knowledge”?
-
4 What does the writer say about the popular online graph?
-
5 What practical advice does the writer give?
True / False / Not Given
True — matnda aynan shunday deyilgan. False — matn aksini aytadi. Not Given — matnda bu haqda ma’lumot yo‘q.
-
1 Dunning and Kruger repeated the study in other countries.
-
2 The study tested only mathematical skills.
-
3 The highest performers tended to underestimate their relative position.
-
4 The original paper was published by psychologists at Cornell University.
-
5 Justin Kruger later disagreed with Dunning about the results.
-
6 The writer believes the effect does not exist at all.
-
7 Dunning emphasises that everyone has blind spots.
-
8 The writer sees irony in how the effect is used online.
-
9 Most people who mention the effect online have read the original paper.
-
10 More rigorous studies suggest the real effect is smaller than first claimed.
-
11 In the original data, the least skilled believed they were better than the experts.
-
12 Random measurement error can create a pattern similar to the effect.
So‘zni ma’nosi bilan juftlang
Chapdan so‘zni, o‘ngdan uning ma’nosini tanlang. Hammasi juftlansa, natija chiqadi.
Natijangiz
- Tushunish
- —
- So‘zlar
- —
- Tezlik
- —