Pamir Glaciers Shrinking Faster Than Expected
Pomir muzliklari kutilganidan tezroq qisqarmoqda
Sarlavha va pastdagi so‘zlarga qarang. Matn nima haqida bo‘lishi mumkin? Bir daqiqa o‘ylab ko‘ring — bu miyani o‘qishga tayyorlaydi.
Markaziy Osiyo muzliklarining erishi va uning suv ta’minotiga ta’siri haqida yangilik.
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Glaciers in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountains are melting significantly faster than scientists had predicted, according to a new international study published this week. The research, carried out over ten years by scientists from Central Asia, Europe and China, found that the region’s glaciers have lost around a fifth of their total volume since the 1960s, and that the rate of loss has increased sharply in the last two decades.
Shu hafta e’lon qilingan yangi xalqaro tadqiqotga ko‘ra, Pomir va Tyanshan tog‘laridagi muzliklar olimlar bashorat qilganidan sezilarli darajada tezroq erimoqda. Markaziy Osiyo, Yevropa va Xitoydan kelgan olimlar tomonidan o‘n yil davomida olib borilgan tadqiqot mintaqa muzliklari 1960-yillardan beri umumiy hajmining taxminan beshdan bir qismini yo‘qotganini va so‘nggi yigirma yilda yo‘qotish sur’ati keskin oshganini aniqlagan.
The findings are a cause of serious concern for the whole of Central Asia. The two great rivers of the region, the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya, depend heavily on meltwater from these glaciers, particularly in late summer, when rainfall is low and demand for water for agriculture is at its highest. Tens of millions of people in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan rely on these rivers for drinking water, farming and electricity.
Topilmalar butun Markaziy Osiyo uchun jiddiy xavotirga sabab bo‘lmoqda. Mintaqaning ikki buyuk daryosi — Amudaryo va Sirdaryo bu muzliklarning erigan suviga katta darajada bog‘liq, ayniqsa yozning oxirida, yog‘ingarchilik kam va qishloq xo‘jaligi uchun suvga talab eng yuqori bo‘lganda. O‘zbekiston, Tojikiston, Qirg‘iziston, Turkmaniston va Qozog‘istondagi o‘nlab million odamlar ichimlik suvi, dehqonchilik va elektr energiyasi uchun shu daryolarga tayanadi.
Paradoxically, the scientists warn that in the short term, rivers may actually carry more water than usual as the glaciers melt faster. This could give a misleading impression that there is no problem. However, once the glaciers shrink beyond a certain point, the amount of meltwater will begin to fall, a moment the researchers call “peak water”. For some smaller glaciers in the region, this point may already have been reached; for the larger ones, it is expected within the next twenty to thirty years.
Paradoksal tarzda, olimlar qisqa muddatda muzliklar tezroq eriganligi sababli daryolar aslida odatdagidan ko‘proq suv olib kelishi mumkinligidan ogohlantirmoqda. Bu hech qanday muammo yo‘q degan chalg‘ituvchi taassurot qoldirishi mumkin. Biroq muzliklar ma’lum bir nuqtadan tashqari qisqargach, erigan suv miqdori kamaya boshlaydi, tadqiqotchilar bu lahzani “eng yuqori suv nuqtasi” deb atashadi. Mintaqadagi ba’zi kichikroq muzliklar uchun bu nuqtaga allaqachon yetilgan bo‘lishi mumkin; kattaroqlari uchun esa bu keyingi yigirma-o‘ttiz yil ichida kutilmoqda.
The study also highlights the risk of sudden floods. As glaciers retreat, they often leave behind lakes held back by unstable walls of ice and rock. If these walls collapse, millions of cubic metres of water can rush down the valleys in a matter of hours. The researchers identified more than one hundred such lakes in the region that they consider potentially dangerous, and they recommend that early warning systems be installed near the most vulnerable villages.
Tadqiqot, shuningdek, to‘satdan sodir bo‘ladigan toshqinlar xavfini ham ta’kidlaydi. Muzliklar chekinar ekan, ular ko‘pincha muz va toshdan iborat beqaror devorlar bilan to‘silgan ko‘llarni qoldiradi. Agar bu devorlar qulasa, millionlab kub metr suv bir necha soat ichida vodiylar bo‘ylab oqib tushishi mumkin. Tadqiqotchilar mintaqada potentsial xavfli deb hisoblagan yuzdan ortiq shunday ko‘lni aniqlashgan va eng zaif qishloqlar yaqinida erta ogohlantirish tizimlarini o‘rnatishni tavsiya qilishgan.
The main cause of the melting is rising temperatures. Average temperatures in Central Asia have increased faster than the global average, and the study found that summers in the high mountains are now considerably longer than they were fifty years ago. Dust blown from the dried-up bed of the Aral Sea may also be playing a role: when the dust settles on the ice, it darkens the surface, which then absorbs more sunlight and melts more quickly.
Erishning asosiy sababi haroratning ko‘tarilishidir. Markaziy Osiyoda o‘rtacha harorat global o‘rtachadan tezroq oshgan va tadqiqot baland tog‘larda yozlar ellik yil oldingiga qaraganda ancha uzoqroq davom etishini aniqlagan. Orol dengizining qurigan tubidan uchirilgan chang ham rol o‘ynayotgan bo‘lishi mumkin: chang muz ustiga tushganda, u sirtni qoraytiradi, keyin sirt ko‘proq quyosh nurini yutib, tezroq eriydi.
The authors stress that the situation is not hopeless, but they call for urgent action. They recommend that the countries of the region cooperate more closely on sharing water, and that farmers be supported in switching to more efficient irrigation methods, such as drip irrigation, which can use up to half as much water as traditional flooding of fields. “The water that will reach our rivers in thirty years depends on the decisions we make today,” said one of the lead authors, a glaciologist from Dushanbe.
Mualliflar vaziyat umidsiz emasligini ta’kidlab, zudlik bilan choralar ko‘rishga chaqirishmoqda. Ular mintaqa mamlakatlariga suvni taqsimlashda yanada yaqinroq hamkorlik qilishni, fermerlarga esa dalalarni an’anaviy suv bostirish usuliga qaraganda yarim baravargacha kam suv sarflaydigan tomchilatib sug‘orish kabi samaraliroq sug‘orish usullariga o‘tishda yordam berishni tavsiya qilmoqda. “O‘ttiz yildan keyin daryolarimizga yetib boradigan suv bugun qabul qiladigan qarorlarimizga bog‘liq”, — dedi bosh mualliflardan biri, Dushanbelik glyatsiolog.
Tushundingizmi?
Javob topa olmasangiz, «O‘qish» bosqichiga qaytib, matnga qarang — bu ham mashq.
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Asosiy g‘oya
1 What is the main message of the report?
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2 How much of their volume have the glaciers lost since the 1960s?
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3 Why might rivers carry more water than usual in the short term?
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4 What can happen when ice and rock walls around glacial lakes collapse?
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5 How can dust from the Aral Sea affect glaciers?
True / False / Not Given
True — matnda aynan shunday deyilgan. False — matn aksini aytadi. Not Given — matnda bu haqda ma’lumot yo‘q.
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1 The study was carried out only by scientists from Central Asia.
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2 The study was carried out over ten years.
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3 Researchers identified over one hundred potentially dangerous lakes.
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4 The lead glaciologist from Dushanbe is a woman.
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5 Summers in the high mountains are now shorter than fifty years ago.
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6 Some smaller glaciers may already have reached “peak water”.
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7 Larger glaciers are expected to reach “peak water” within five years.
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8 The Amu Darya and Syr Darya depend on glacier meltwater.
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9 Temperatures in Central Asia have risen faster than the global average.
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10 Kyrgyzstan uses the most water from these rivers.
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11 Early warning systems have already been installed in all villages.
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12 Drip irrigation can use much less water than flooding fields.
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